The Smiths in 2024
Confused by the postcard picture? Well, it's a combination of two things that are usually pretty big parts of a normal year with the Smith's: 1.) Our neighborhood goes all out on Halloween, and we host a block party. Our family’s costume contest entry this year was 'Astronauts.' It's also meaningful because I wanted to be an astronaut growing up, and space in general has also had such a big year in 2024 (in case you missed things like chopsticks catching a 23-story building that fell from the sky). This year the Smiths also got to go to the Johnson Space Center in Houston, and in Austin even got to tour the Firefly Aerospace facility that makes the NASA lunar lander! And I didn't forget, I know there was a … 2.) Enchanted Rock ... It's kind of our family place. We usually make at least one or two annual pilgrimages, and this year was no different. One thing we still love about it is how much it always looks like an alien landscape. It's like taking a spaceship to another world, and being back by bedtime. This year we just so happened to have costumes to complete the whole fantasy. :-) Hmmm, what else happened in 2024? The kids got to see Chicago for the first time and visit Indiana Dunes National Park. It was tons of fun, and they only have four continental states to go! We also got to see lots more alien landscapes in beautiful Southern Utah, visiting “The Mighty Five” national parks. These few pictures definitely don’t do it justice. Among other things, I somehow found time to add a science degree to my resume this year too. The kids are also excelling at all sorts of new things, really picking up steam in piano, writing, robotics, coding, and even gaining at least beginner proficiency in something like 7 different computer languages (I’m losing track). We just wrapped up our second robotics season, and the kids had a lot of fun. Both kids have advanced about one belt level in Jiu Jitsu, Addie is working her way up in gymnastics, and Logan has found a new love– the Dungeons & Dragons game! Of course he hasn’t left his first love, video games -- and even gets Addie involved sometimes when he can pull her away from crafts and puzzles. They’re kickin’ all kinds of tail in academics, but I’ll spare you that trophy “show and tell.” I will say though that it was VERY cool to see a writing teacher light Logan’s fire earlier this year. He even published a kid's book, and you can purchase it on Amazon! What else is going on?... Addie now routinely saves up her money to dye her hair rainbow. Hillary continues her passion toward all things small, furry, and feathery. We even accompanied her to a the HummerFest in Port Aransas in September, where host homes hang feeders to nourish hummingbirds along their yearly migration to Mexico. Hillary also continues new milestones in real estate, despite a rough industry with lots of changes this year. She's expanded her staging services and has a legit warehouse now to organize all the furniture and accessories. We also enjoyed some great visitors from out of town. Early in the year we were able to see the Bjorks from Africa, and during the solar eclipse, our old friends the Robinsons were able to come down from Maryland. Our friend, Valerie, from Tennessee, was even able to drop by as well! The biggest treat of all is that, after coming last year, my in-laws –- Faith, Robert, & little Scout– never left! They live four doors down! That makes our local life cool in so many ways! One other big change for me this year is the degree I’ve begun to integrate AI into my daily lifestyle. If you haven’t delved into this yet… I’d say you don’t know what you’re missing! It can really enrich your life, if you begin to work it into your routines. What’s more, I’d suggest that things are moving so fast that if you don’t get on board soon, it will be hard to catch up.
Is Austin’s Traffic Among the Worst in the U.S.?
If you’re an Austinite, you’re all too familiar with the struggle of navigating the city’s traffic—it often feels like it couldn’t be worse. Surprisingly, though, Austin doesn’t even rank in the top 15 cities for worst traffic in the U.S., according to Visual Capitalist. Read here to learn more about how many hours are lost to traffic congestion in various cities across the nation. Below you can find a breakdown of the rankings.
X Headquarters Moving to Austin Suburb
Elon Musk is reportedly moving X headquarters from California to Bastrop, Texas, about 30 miles east of Austin. This move follows the relocation of some of his other ventures, such as the Boring Company and SpaceX, to the Bastrop area. Read more about the company’s move here.
Austin’s Unspoken Rules
If you’re new to Austin or even if you’ve lived here a while, there are some unspoken rules that are good to know. Here you can find a detailed guide of these must-know tips, along with some insight from locals. Below are a handful of the unspoken rules with links offering more detail about their significance: “Keep Austin Weird”“Bring your dog”Best BBQ“Live Music Capital of the World”No Swimming in Lady Bird LakePronunciationsChili’s at 45th and North Lamar is Famous
Median Home Prices and the Salary Needed to Make it Work
Whether you plan to buy soon or just want to stay up to date on the housing market, the median home prices in your area can provide a brief snapshot of where the market currently stands. In the link below, you can find charts and graphics of these statistics that not only compare median home prices in 50 U.S. metropolitan areas, but also provide the salary amount needed to make a monthly payment. Location, of course, has a large impact on these numbers, and sizeable differences can be seen between some cities. For instance, one city requires a salary of over $400,000, while another area requires less than $70,000. Learn more about this and view the comparisons here.
Which Cities Have Had the Fastest Population Changes?
The Texas population has been continually increasing over time, with 2020-2023 showing exponential growth. Austin, often referred to as a “boomtown” in the recent years, is typically at the center of this conversation, but there are many other cities in Texas and other states that experienced very rapid increases as well. In contrast, there are some cities that faced the opposite experience of a rapidly shrinking population. While one of these cities is in Texas, the state still has 9 of the 10 fastest-growing U.S. cities. More about these population changes can be read here.
Friendliest States in the U.S.
We’ve all heard of southern hospitality and the charm often associated with many of the southern states. In fact, you would probably expect those states to be at the top of the list for being the friendliest to tourists. You might be surprised, though, at which state holds the number one spot. Find out which places are the most welcoming to visit, and which are not, here.
Texas City Ranks on Worldwide Quality of Life Index
Texas cities are receiving global recognition in a study assessing quality of life. Surveys based on affordability of housing, cost of living, crime rates, health system, traffic and pollution were used to determine the ranking of the cities. In 2024, several Texas cities were ranked worldwide for their quality of life. Austin earned a top spot as No. 15 globally, praised for its vibrant culture, live music, and strong job market. Learn more about the Texas cities that made the list here.
UT Austin to House Microelectronics Manufacturing Hub
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and University of Texas at Austin have agreed to a 5-year partnership to establish the first advanced microelectronics manufacturing hub in the U.S. The project will be spilt into two phases and will focus on an advanced approach to microelectronics fabrication. Learn more about the details of the partnership between DARPA and UT Austin here.
“Tornado Alley” Moving East?
Historically, the term “Tornado Alley” has referred to the central Plains region of the U.S. that has been the most susceptible to tornadoes. For many years, tornado formations peaked in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, however, tornado pattern maps have indicated a gradual shift to the east with tornado events peaking in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. For more details on this shift, along with maps and statistics, read here.
Tesla Takes Over as Largest Private Employer in Austin
Tesla’s employee count has been on the rise as they have gradually been building their team at the Austin Gigafactory. Not only has this growth contributed to a rise in new jobs, but it has also led the company to take over as the largest private employer in Austin. Read more about their growth and which Texas company lost their top spot on the list to Tesla here.
Changes to How Contracts and Representation Work
Hi everyone, maybe some of you have heard about some of the changes to how contracts and representation work across the nation. Here’s a brief catchup if you’re out of the loop: I won’t have all the answers because it’s still so new, but I did actually sit in on a seminar last week listening to experts give their takes, and best guesses. The judge hasn’t signed off on the settlement yet, there could be more changes, it doesn’t start until July, and it may be pushed back more, so… Lots in the air still. Nevertheless, some of the bones of it all are starting to come together, so I’ll just give my take. I’m also required to say 47 times “I’m not a lawyer, and not allowed to give legal advice, so if you’d like any legal advice you need to go talk to your own lawyer…” First off, let’s start with a primer with how things DID work, for those that might be a little hazy. For over 100 years, the system has been more or less stable. Usually a seller hires a seller agent, and enters a listing agreement. In that listing agreement, the seller agrees to pay 6%. Upon the sale of the home, 3% of that goes to the seller agent, and 3% goes to the buyer agent. Those numbers don’t have to be that amount, and certainly have always been negotiable, but various forces have kept those numbers near that amount for a century. More or less competition and local norms have dropped that number to nearer to 2.5% each in some areas, for some durations of times, but by and large, over the entire nation they’ve stayed nearer 3% for each agent. The new court case argued, however, that the seller will no longer commit, in the original listing agreement weeks or months before the home is purchased, to paying this 3% buyer agent commission. It does not say the seller cannot pay this commission, it just says it cannot be set from the beginning. The local MLS’s (multiple listing services) also cannot advertise a pre-agreed compensation for the buyer agent, as they have done. The lawyers argued that this formed a type of collusion, boxing out sellers who didn’t want to operate this way, and that this process was making homes more expensive for buyers, who were still functionally paying buyer agents through their higher home prices. But buyer agents will still end up getting paid, I’m sure, but how and how much? My opinion is that, once things settle down, the actual functionality of the process will change very little. Although TECHNICALLY, until now, the seller has been the party paying for buyer agent commissions, there’s really always been some ambiguity. No one pays anything until the home closes, so it’s basically paid “at the cash register.” When you buy something at, say, HEB really what matters to you (the buyer) is the net amount you pay, and what matters to HEB (the seller) is how much net they walk away with as well. It kind of doesn’t matter who is technically the one paying the sales tax, because it arguably directly impacts the wallets of both. If there was no sales tax (a transaction fee) then HEB would be able to charge higher prices and earn more money, because the consumer could bear it. If there were no transaction fees then the buyer could arguably pay less on their final ticket as well. Functionally, the sales tax at the grocery store inhibits the wallets of both. Transaction fees almost always affect both parties. Who was paying buyer agents before the shake up? Both parties were. For that matter, who was paying the seller agent? Also both parties. After the shakeup, the transaction fees will still come from both parties, functionally, but we will just end up merely having different labels for the line items. Who is technically paying the buyer agent will depend upon how the purchase contract is negotiated… which will basically just mean how the line items are labeled. Again, both will hurt a little from it, but who is FUNCTIONALLY paying these transaction fees is still arguable. What would change the bottom line for both buyer and seller is if the value of the input of those involved decreases. That begs the question: “are realtors, lenders, title agents, etc WORTH the money they’re being paid?” I’m aware that some will answer that question with “no,” but I’ll relay a few counter arguments here. 1) Functionally: Buyers and sellers have ALWAYS been able to negotiate their commission, at any point. There’s no truer axiom than “everything is negotiable in real estate.” Not only that, we’ve always been REQUIRED to have clients sign a document emphasizing that everything is negotiable. Even though it’s always been negotiable, as mentioned above, the general norms for compensation have stayed pretty stable for over 100 years. Some would argue that’s because the industry has everyone in a choke hold, but others would argue that the public is willing to pay it because they recognize the value and expertise provided by those involved. You can decide for yourself, but my point is that customers have already been voluntarily participating in this compensation structure, functionally, for a century without change. Changing the labeling of the line items may not change that overall functional structure. 2) Value: While it does seem like there is occasionally protest from a seller about the value provided, I rarely ever hear this about buyer agents. Just this morning (I’m not making this up), my clients were conversing about houses they liked and snorted “well this one is only offering 2.5% to the buyer agent, so even though I like it, THAT one’s out!” I told them “no, no, don’t mark off a property because of me. I just want you guys to have the best home.” Still, just the fact that this occurred was telling, and I honestly don’t think it was contrived. They appreciate the service I’m offering, and the massive hours I have been putting in for them. I think even seller’s themselves recognize this about buyer agents, and I’ve heard them say so on many occasions, things like “sheesh those buyer agents are out there working hard, driving around all over creation, putting up with all kinds of nonsense… I don’t want to discount them.” They also say “I don’t want to be blacklisted either, or have my home spoken poorly of. Let’s keep that compensation at 3%.” Sure, some of my stories may be a little cherry-picked, but they’re definitely not “made up.” I hear this type of thing all the time, and I also feel quite confident of MY own value. Honestly, not every agent is worth that 3%… but I am. I have the experience of hundreds of home transactions and hundreds of hours of continuing education. Not only do I steer them around countless landmines, but I also often end up saving them more than my compensation. I can sleep at night knowing that’s usually true–functionally I don’t cost my buyers anything. For my sellers… you get a similar amount of expertise, sweat, and tears, although it might not be as glaringly obvious sometimes, especially if things go right and your home sells quickly. That is one difficult part of the selling side of real estate. If you do your job well, it sometimes looks like you did very little. It is also worth noting though that I have multiple people on payroll handling all kinds of nuts and bolts, and those people have to be compensated as well. I know perhaps I’m not emphatically answering the question “are agents worth what they’re being paid,” but I do want to pose that there is at least a strong case to be made. What’s more, realtors don’t make NEARLY as much as most people think, and likely work way more hours than most think. When agents miss your call, it’s not because they’re vacationing in the Riviera. That’s mostly just TV show stuff, not real life… not for the vast majority. 3) Assigning line items: Well, all that above being so, who will TECHNICALLY be paying for the buyer agent’s commission? I think that will become very “case by case,” but after things settle down norms will eventually be established. We don’t know those norms yet, but I suspect that most contracts will just be written so that the sellers pay the buyer agent’s commission, for a conventional amount, and things will mostly be right back where we started. The main difference will be that that will be established at the point of sale (when the purchase contract is agreed), instead of weeks or months before when the house is listed with a selling agent. I have the same feeling: it SEEMS fairer to not require the seller to commit ahead of time what they’ll pay the buyer agent, rather, they can just decide on that amount at time of purchase. Again, though, after norms settle down I think things will be functionally similar to now. Another thing that’s worth noting is that according to my seminar last week, about 50% of homes are selling right now with some form of seller concession in the contract. That means that whether it be cash for closing costs, cash for repairs, cash to buy down loan points, etc it is already common practice for buyers to ask the seller to pay for things in the purchase contract. Adding the buyer agent’s commission as a line item labeled “seller’s concession” is really nothing revolutionary for contract writing, and many contracts will just be written this way. Will there be other contracts with different terms, written a hundred different ways? Sure, but there will also soon be general norms established for who pays what, and how those payments are labeled. A prime example is that currently, in Austin, the seller pays for the title policy probably 90+% of the time. Is it stipulated anywhere that it has to be that way? No, absolutely not. Convention has determined who has been assigned this title policy line item. The title policy cost still takes from both parties’ wallets, and who the line item is assigned to is a little (functionally) beside the point, in my opinion. It just “FEELS” bad when you see a line item is assigned to your name; I get it. It might be helpful to realize though that if we shuffled the deck and assigned all the line items differently, it might still end up that both parties end up netting the same amount of money in the end, regardless of who different line items are assigned to. That’s how the give and take of supply and demand work in a market economy. Two parties essentially negotiate a net price for each, and who pays the transaction fees in the middle are somewhat incidental, to a certain degree. The transaction fees arguably are not one of the central factors affecting the agreed up on net prices. 4.) Buyer’s representation agreements: What will likely be the case is that most (or many??) buyers out there who are house-shopping will already have “buyer representation agreements” with their agents. Buyers Rep Agreements can vary, but most are currently written to stipulate that their agent gets 3% compensation. This 3% will first be attempted to obtain from the seller, or if not, the buyer themselves owe it. That being the case, the buyer has a strong incentive to make sure they write their offers so that their agent’s compensation is in the offer contract. If these buyer rep agreements have widespread norms, the offers/purchase contracts will likely have similar norms. Again, none of this is required, but conventions form. As long as the buyers and buyer’s agents engage in conventional agreements, so offer contracts will also become conventional along the same lines. Another force that makes these conventions become pervasive is the synchronizing effect that big brokerages have. Some big brokerages (like Keller Williams or Compass) may stipulate their buyer agents have certain buyer rep agreements. Buyer clients don’t have to accept those terms or work with their brokerage’s agents, but there end up being generally uniform terms applied widely across the nation. It only takes a few big brokerages with the same uniform terms, gathering momentum, for norms across the entire nation to solidify. After you have a large percentage of buyers all synchronized with the same buyer’s representation terms, it will likely have the effect of synchronizing purchase contract terms as well. As I’ve said, we’re all still figuring this out. This is just my take, right now. Please let me know any questions you might have! Don’t be shy in talking about it! I’m happy to do it more!
Reversal in Travis County Population Trends
Travis County has been a consistent hot spot for people moving to the Austin area, but for the first time in two decades, the number of people leaving the county is greater than the number moving in. It’s a prime example of how, sometimes, what goes up, must come down. Nevertheless, while this phenomenon is unprecedented for the more recent years, it seems we have likely hit the bottom and will soon see an upward trend once again. Read more about the recent shift in population trends here.
Is Austin Losing its Appeal?
In the recent years, especially since the pandemic, Austin has been the go-to place for companies, start-ups, and investors. The population has had a huge influx due to Austin’s appeal in affordability and job opportunities. But has the allure worn off? Read here to learn more about if Austin has lost its luster.
The Smiths in 2023
Being something of photographers in a past life, Hillary and I had already seen a thousand pictures of the TA Moulton Barn that sits in front of the Grand Tetons. As we were accompanying my mother on a bucket list trip up to Glacier National Park a couple months ago, I realized we’d be passing right by it! I knew we HAD to somehow make it our Christmas card. I also think it’s a good memento to a pretty picturesque year. We’ve been blessed to have a stretch of growth without any major bumps or crises. The kids are finally getting to the age where they can explore lots of new things and acquire varied skills. We tried fencing, but haven’t stuck with it. Tried jiu jitsu, and still going strong. Tried chess, and have stuck with it. The kids and I learned the Rubik’s cube too. Addie is the master, usually completing in about a minute. We all tried skateboarding and rollerblading as well, and have actually even gotten pretty decent at it! Maybe it could translate into snowboarding & skiing skill later on. The kids have also taken up piano, and to my surprise, Logan’s even gotten pretty excited about it. Mom helps polish them off where the lessons leave off… and I’m no help whatsoever. Hillary also continues to break through ceilings in real estate, and amazingly thrive in a market that is really stacked against us right now. My little math monsters continue to scale new heights. And Addie with puzzles…sheesh! All. Day. Long. We also started a robotics team and have begun learning the basics. The kids have even moved from block coding into java recently! If they could ever stop fighting with each other, they could make a great team. Hands-on Addie can build ANYTHING it seems, and abstract Logan could be her coder. Someday, perhaps… This year we also retraced some old trails as well, showing the kids more of the nation. Only eight states to go! We of course made our regular pilgrimages to Enchanted Rock, and once was even during a meteor shower! We also made our first trip to a Renaissance Fair, just to make sure we fully round out our nerdiness. In general, I think Mission “Be-open-to-new-things” has been somewhat successful. Heck, I can even get the kids to eat Thai food with me on occasion! Incredibly, we’ve also got them doing laundry and dishes. Not kidding. And my new thing this year? I guess I’d have to say healthy living! It only took me 40 years to finally try this path. In August we got a REALLY pleasant surprise. Hillary’s sister and brother in law got a job in Austin and moved in four doors down! They have a newborn that we can dote on for a while… and then hand back. It will be fun celebrating the holidays in Austin with a lot more local family gravity this year. We hope you also had some happy trails this year, even if bumpy, and holidays that bring some rest and reflection. If you enjoy watching the kids grow, here are the ghosts of Christmas past: The Smiths in 2022 The Smiths in 2021 The Smiths in 2020 The Smiths in 2019 The Smiths in 2018 The Smiths in 2017 The Smiths in 2016 The Smiths in 2015
Austin Ranked Among Worst Cities for Traffic
How does Austin traffic compare to other U.S. cities? According to this article, on average, Austin drivers lost 53 hours of commute time due to traffic delays in 2022. A breakdown of these traffic stats and where Austin ranks nationally among the worst traffic cities can be found here.
Austin’s Role in the Introduction of Central A/C
There’s no doubt that the heat we experience here in Texas makes central A/C a household necessity. It’s something we’ve become accustomed to, but maybe never gave much thought to how it got its start. Interestingly enough, an Austin neighborhood played an early role in this invention eventually becoming a fixture in every home. Read here to learn how Austin helped introduce central A/C nearly 70 years ago.
America’s Best Taco Cities
Tacos are, of course, a staple here in Austin. But how does Austin rank when searching for the best cities in the US for tacos? That ranking and even more taco data can be found here.
Austin Market Facing Pandemic Correction
So where are we now? What goes up must come down? We were among the leaders of home appreciation during the pandemic era, and now we’re one of the areas with the biggest correction happening. As a smaller city, smaller changes in migration and investor participation make a bigger difference in our market. Recall that the most central metric, in my opinion, is the “months of inventory” statistic. This is basically just a measure of the ratio of buyers to sellers. If you bring in, say, 50k new people to a smaller place like Austin, that affects this ratio greatly. If you do that in a place like Houston, the ratio is not as dramatically affected. Investors often lead the way in enthusiasm, and few cities had more investor enthusiasm than Silicon Valley #2 (Austin). Once they backed off, many followed their lead. All that said, I’m still bullish on Austin. The IT industry is here to stay as a leader above all others. We have continual real job growth which paves the way for future population and economic growth. Once the Fed takes their foot off our neck and helps us out with better interest rates, I expect Austin to be roaring once more… Read more about the pandemic correction in Austin here.
The Smiths in 2022
With an eye injury, a month as a pirate, and three surgeries to follow, 2022 took off from a bit of a low point. Not having to wear a mask anymore–definite high point. Real estate was also surging and was keeping us busy. The Austin market is a roller coaster, though, now down about 20% from the peak. This year Logan turned 9 and got his braces off. Addie turned 7 and just lost her first tooth. Besides Minecraft and Fortnight obsessions, Logan is also learning to code and is a voracious reader. Addie keeps her head in crafts and wordsearch puzzles. They have both advanced in school in leaps and bounds. Both are math rockstars. There’s little more I can say about their progress other than … wow. For two realtors in a nose-diving market, the one silver lining is more time off for some roadtrips. We’ve been able to take in some of America’s natural beauty, and the kids were able to rack up their 17th state. I’m thankful for our world-class road system, and the freedom to roam. Are you curious about some of the pictures below? Yes, that IS actually Hillary getting boxed by a hungry Kangaroo. Yes, the Smiths actually ARE nerdy enough to all dress in historical costumes for Halloween. Yes, those ARE pictures of them standing on foreign planets landscapes… yet somehow on Earth. Yes, there really IS a museum devoted to an ancient war between aliens and dinosaurs. Yes, I actually DID get charged by an angry elk at a car charging station. Yes, those ARE 200+ year old cacti about 4 times our height. Yes, those ARE wild hogs behind our house–right in the middle of Austin. And, yes, apparently Addie’s new boyfriend is Bigfoot. We’d love to hear what’s going on with you. Give us a shout! If you enjoy watching the kids grow, here are the ghosts of Christmas past: The Smiths in 2021 The Smiths in 2020 The Smiths in 2019 The Smiths in 2018 The Smiths in 2017 The Smiths in 2016 The Smiths in 2015
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