Why 2026 Could Be a “Little Bit Better” for Housing — Especially Here in Texas

If you’ve been wondering whether the housing market might finally feel a bit more manageable, there’s some encouraging news on the horizon — especially for those of us in the San Antonio and Schertz area. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is predicting that 2026 won’t be a dramatic turnaround, but it will be a noticeable improvement. Think of it as the market taking a deep breath after a wild few years.

Nationally, NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun expects 30-year mortgage rates to drop to around 6.0% next year — a shift that could make homebuying feel a little less intimidating. He’s also projecting a 14% increase in existing-home sales and a 4% bump in home prices across the U.S. It’s not a booming market by any means, but as Yun puts it, it’s “a little bit better”: more stability, more activity, and a slow return of affordability.

So what does this all mean for our local market?

Here in the San Antonio–Schertz area, we’re already seeing signs that align with these national trends. Inventory continues to rise, giving buyers more options than we’ve seen in recent years. Homes aren’t flying off the market anymore — recent reports show they’re taking between 74 and 87 days to sell, which is a noticeable shift from the lightning-fast pace of the pandemic era. According to SABOR (the San Antonio Board of Realtors), active listings are growing, and with that comes more room for negotiation.

Prices are holding steady too. The median home price in San Antonio sits at roughly $300,000, showing modest year-over-year growth rather than the sharp spikes we’ve seen in other parts of the country. This kind of slow, steady appreciation is exactly the kind of environment economists expect as things normalize.

All of this points to a local market that’s becoming more balanced — and that balance tends to work in buyers’ favor. As mortgage rates ease, many buyers who were pushed to the sidelines may feel confident enough to re-enter the market. The increase in inventory means more choices and, in some cases, better deals. And because homes are taking longer to sell, sellers may be more open to negotiating on price or terms.

Another interesting factor shaping our region is the rise of build-to-rent communities. New rental developments popping up around San Antonio could help relieve some pressure on the resale market while giving locals more flexible living options if they’re not quite ready to buy.

So what’s the move?

If you’re thinking about buying, this is a great time to get prepared. Prequalification now could position you perfectly once rates tick down. For sellers, pricing strategically and being open to negotiation will be key. And for investors, neighborhoods with growing inventory or active build-to-rent projects might offer some compelling opportunities.

At the end of the day, 2026 may not bring a housing boom — at least not a Texas-sized one — but it will likely bring meaningful improvement. For those of us in the San Antonio and Schertz area, that means more choices, better conditions, and a market that feels just a little more friendly than it has in a while. If you’ve been waiting for things to shift, this could be your moment — and planning ahead now will help you take full advantage when it arrives.